Are diversified investments safer than non-diversified? Or, another AP misrepresentation?

I have a 401(k) plan. 401(k) is the section of the tax code that lets me contribute money into an account tax free (i.e., the money I put in each month is off the top, and not taxed), is allowed to grow tax free (i.e., no capital gains tax) which will eventually be taxed when I decide to take it out. My 401(k) money is invested in several mutual funds that generally invest in the stock market. I’m relatively young, and historically the stock market has produced higher returns than any other investments, so the bulk of my money is there for now. When I get older I’ll start moving my 401(k) money into safer investments, with lower returns. When you are young, you can endure short-term swings in volatile, yet higher producing, investments. When you are older, your timeframes are shorter and you are less able to endure volatility.

This is all common sense. This should be taught in 8th grade. Diversifying your investments is safer than putting all your eggs into one basket. It is not always the best choice in hindsight – I would love to have put all my money in Google at the IPO price, then sold it for gold at the high end just before Google’s latest earning report – but it is definitely the safest.

So why is the AP reporting that the growth in 401(k) funds, now with more aggregate money than “traditional” pension funds, is “a dramatic change that will force younger workers to plan more carefully for retirement”? A “traditional” pension fund is one where an employee puts all his eggs in one basket – the basket of your employer, ala Enron. This is, and has always been, foolhardy non-diversification.

United Airlines recently emerged from bankruptcy. As part of its Chapter 11 reorganization, “drastic cuts were made to the pension plans.” If every employee had invested their money in a 401(k) instead of United’s traditional pension plan, they would still have all their money because, surprise surprise, it would be their money, not some future promise of a pension. Worse, United’s employees’ union almost surely bargained for this form of compensation. It doesn’t matter one whit to your employer how he compensates you – all cash, a mix of cash and health benefits, a mix of cash, health benefits, pension plan, etc. It’s all the same to the employer. Anyone who can take all of their compensation in cash, but doesn’t, is an idiot. (When I say “cash” I include anything that one has a present property interest in, which is not subject to some future promise.)

This is essentially why we need to privatize Social Security. It is a simple legal principal – title to my retirement money should be mine. Social Security is a mere unenforceable promise by today’s politicians that tomorrow’s politicians will pay you back something resembling what you are being taxed today – or in other words, a Ponzi scheme. Since the age demographics in this country will not support such a Ponzi scheme in the very near future, you (and me) can all kiss our “promised” Social Security goodby – just as United employees kissed their “pensions” goodby.

Both Social Security and United pensions suffer from the same basic problem – lack of diversification. Both plans are utterly dependent upon one, and only one, enterprise succeeding indefinitely. Social Security’s Ponzi scheme cannot survive indefinitely. Though ignorant leftists once thought big corprations like United could never fail, this is obviously not true (TWA, Pan Am, Enron). The only way to keep your money is to keep your money – i.e., get it all under your legal control. This will not guarantee that you’ll keep all of your money, as certainly your mutual funds will occasionaly invest in stinkers like Enron. But it is far better than Social Security or a “traditional” pension.

To sum up: The AP article leads with scaremongering that 401(k)s are somehow more difficult to manage or riskier than “traditional” pensions, which is not true. From this I discern that the AP reporter is either reflexively liberal (most likely) or an ignoramus (what’s the difference? you say). 401(k)s are obviously better than “traditional” pensions, as any diversified investment plan is better than a concentrated plan. This is simple stuff, and shows why Social Security should be wholly privatized.

UPDATE: Even though no one reads this blog, I thought I should clarify one point made above. As the United bankruptcy demonstrates, employers actually do care about how they structure their compensation of their employees. Pension plans have been favorites because they allow the employer to keep the money (essentially by requiring the employees to “invest” their pension-allocated money in the employer rather than elsewhere) and are dischargeable if the employer ever files for bankruptcy. If an employer can give you a (potentially unenforceable) promise of payment later instead of cash now, well, it doesn’t take a brain surgeon to figure out that it’ll do the former. Social Security works on the same principal, except Social Security is 100% unenforceable.

This is an old blog article found on Ben’s Law.

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Five Traps That Trick Americans Into Accepting Socialized Medicine

There is no serious debate in Washington about health care, as Democrats make another attempt to confiscate control of our entire health care system. It’s a war of words even among Democrats, as each faction tries to fashion its own idea of how best to get the sheeple on the road to health care rationing.

That’s right. All proposals the Democrats are considering lead to the same dead end – socialized medicine and then health care rationing. All of this is in the name of providing health insurance for a conveniently misleading number of 50 million uninsured.

Although the Republicans are offering alternatives, once again they are being ignored by the Democratic leadership and the mainstream media. Democrats are also ignoring the pitfalls of government-run health care experienced in other countries.

When the intelligent thinkers sift through the health care hot air they find five traps that are being used to entice the American sheeple onto the road to rationing. Many of us are aware of these traps, because we remember the last time the Democrats tried to take control of the entire health care system 15 years ago.

Mandate health insurance coverage. This is how the Social Security system got started in 1935. The deductions from people’s paychecks and from their employers were mandated, because everyone deserved some assistance in their golden years, and everyone had to participate in order for it to work.

There were a few small problems along the way. Congress changed the rules, increased the amount of the deductions and started using the money for other purposes. And by the way, if your future Social Security benefits are your only means of “retiring”, your lifestyle will suffer dramatically.

A government mandate is also how Medicare got started in 1965. Look how well it’s not working. Like Social Security, the problems are being ignored.

Government health insurance will be an option. Representative Tom Price of Georgia described this trap the best. It’s like competing against a team that made the rules, and they can change the rules whenever they want to in order to give themselves a better advantage. Eventually, there will only be one option, and even the sheeple can figure that out.

Private health benefits will be taxed. This is the class warfare trap. People who have health insurance benefits being partially paid by their employer should be punished for being so lucky. We must all share in the same mediocre benefits controlled by Big Brother.

It’s free! This is the biggest and easiest trap for people who love more government programs and higher taxes, because they will most likely be on the receiving end after Uncle Sam takes more money from those greedy rich people. When the Democrats spend more time talking about how to pay for “it” – when we do not even know what “it” is – we are screwed.

It’s now or never! The fast-track timetable that the president wants will have the same consequences as the hurry-up-and-pass-it-now $787 billion “stimulus” spending bill. Namely, no one will have time to read it and know what’s in it, so the administration can make the rules up as they go.

An alternative title for this article could have been “Five ways to make health care in America worse,” because each one of these traps will create another problem that will lead to another bad solution by Congress and the president, only to be ignored into the distant future.

For Social Security and Medicare, the distant future is already here.

(Source: Herman Cain)

http://hermancain.com/news/press-opinion-061509.asp

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GM Bankruptcy

I think it’s interesting the a company going bankrupt would be talked about on a political blog, but apparently the US Government will own 60% of the “new GM”.  Canada will also have a major stake in this “new GM” as a 12% shareholder.

So now, here we find ourselves out of $30,000,000,000 (I couldn’t find an exact number, this could be for both GM and Chrysler) and we’ll be paying another $30,000,000,000+ to get GM through the bankruptcy/restructuring process.  This is what happens when the government decides to stick their nose where it doesn’t belong and prop up bad business.

The only good news is that a lot of people saw it coming and made a considerable amount of money off the deal.  I’m currently playing a stock game with a thinkorswim paperMoney account I have a very short position (Gary Coleman short) on GM.  My sources tell me that a judge will decide what the common shareholders will get and the stock will be haulted.  I’m hearing that it will probably be worth ~$.10 a share.  Too bad that wasn’t real money that I had in the markets…

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Obama Oops

Oops

Oops (click for Full Size)

Someone uploaded an image today. I thought it was pretty funny so I figured I’d post it.

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Want "Hope and Change"? Buy a Goat

Although the mainstream media won’t report it as such, Obama’s approval numbers are shrinking. Which means that elsewhere, certain numbers are growing — the unreported-by-the-MSM growing numbers of Americans who are kicking themselves for not having bothered to read the small print underneath the word “change.”

The small print was kind of blurry, while “change” was spelled in huge, pleasing letters on the signs they held at the rallies. The fierce urgency of now was in the air. Everybody was in such a hurry to bring about change; there was no time to ask “why” or “what kind of change.” As objectivity faded into the sunset, their individual brains melted into a euphoric collective mush, swirling around the only remaining absolute — change. In the absence of other standards, the truth became a mere matter of taste, subject to change without notice. If it didn’t change, it wasn’t the truth.

So they won the election; now what? Three months later and almost a month into Obama’s presidency, as the nation is beginning to rub its sore, swollen eyelids and finally trying to focus on reality, it looks in the mirror and, with a shock, notices a gigantic hammer and sickle tattooed on its forehead, which clearly wasn’t there before. The bubbling euphoric pulp has solidified into a depressing pile of unpaid bills and warrants. The computer has turned into a shovel and the big-screen TV into a 1930s-style radio, with the disciplined voice of Dear Leader calling for unity and sacrifice in the face of mounting economic hardships. The only thing left unchanged is the Obama t-shirt with the magic word “change” on the chest.

Being an immigrant from the former USSR — the land of equally redistributed misery — I used to cringe when Americans complained to me about the perceived misery and lack of opportunity under capitalism. I laughed at American homegrown agitators who were carping on behalf of “communities” about the lack of “economic justice.” They sounded like ignorant, spoiled brats who hated their rich parents for giving them the car of the wrong color. The whiners either didn’t realize how good they had it or they were being deliberately misleading. Either way their message was a fraud.

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Republicans Must Turn Down the Kool-Aid

It’s going to take real courage the next four years for Republicans to swim against the tide and oppose Barack Obama — in whom so many have placed their hopes, almost to the point of idolatry. But if Obama governs in a way that’s consistent with his promises, the country’s future security and prosperity will depend on spirited opposition.

It’s bad enough for the liberal media to deify Obama, but it’s almost unbearable for right-wing commentators and politicians to jump on this bandwagon, as well, as if Obama’s personal attributes have blinded them to the policy dangers he represents.

During the Bush years, the left blamed Bush for the absence of bipartisanship, when, by any rational measure, they were the ones whose relentless vitriol made bipartisanship impossible.

Forgive the analogy, but their reversal of blame is reminiscent of a memorable scene in the movie “Animal House,” when fraternity hotshot “Otter” pressured the hapless legacy pledge, “Flounder,” into lending him his brother’s car. When Otter returned the car after having demolished it, Otter chastised Flounder for entrusting the car to him. “You (screwed) up. You trusted me.”

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CEO Letter to his Employees

To All My Valued Employees,

There have been some rumblings around the office about the future of this company, and more specifically, your job. As you know, the economy has changed for the worse and presents many challenges. However, the good news is this: The economy doesn’t pose a threat to your job.

What does threaten your job however, is the changing political landscape in this country. Of course, as your employer, I am forbidden to tell you whom to vote for — it is against the law to discriminate based on political affiliation, Race, creed, religion, etc.

Please vote who you think will serve your Interests the best. However, let me tell you some little tidbits of fact which might help you decide what is in your best interest. First, while it is easy to spew rhetoric that casts employers against employees, you have to understand that for every business owner there is a back story.

This back story is often neglected and overshadowed by what you see and hear. Sure, you see me park my Mercedes outside. You’ve seen my big home at last years Christmas party. I’m sure all these flashy icons of luxury conjure up some idealized thoughts about my life. However, what you don’t see is the back story.

I started this company 12 years ago. At that time, I lived in a 300 square foot studio apartment for 3 years. My entire living space was converted into an office so I could put forth 100% effort into building a company, which by the way, would eventually employ you.

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Sunrise at Coffin Rock

The old man walked slowly through the dry, fallen leaves of autumn, his practiced eye automatically choosing the bare and stony places in the trail for his feet. There was scarcely a sound as he passed, though his left knee was stiff with scar tissue. He grunted occasionally as the tight sinews pulled. “Darn chainsaw”, he thought.

Behind him, the boy shuffled along, trying to imitate his grandfather, but unable to mimic the silent motion that the old man had learned during countless winter days upon this wooded mountain in pursuit of game. He’s fifteen years old, the old man thought. Plenty old enough to be learning. But that was another time, another America. His mind drifted, and he saw himself, a fifteen-year-old boy following in the footsteps of his own grandfather, clutching a twelve gauge in his trembling hands as they tracked a wounded whitetail.
The leg was hurting worse now, and he slowed his pace a bit. Plenty of time. It should have been my own son here with me now, the old man thought sadly. But Jason had no interest, no understanding. He cared for nothing but pounding on the keys of that darned computer terminal. He knew nothing about the woods, or where food came from…or freedom. And that’s my fault, isn’t it?

The old man stopped and held up his hand, motioning for the boy to look. In the small clearing ahead, the deer stood motionless, watching them. It was a scraggly buck, underfed and sickly, but the boy’s eyes lit up with excitement. It had been many years since they had seen even a single whitetail here on the mountain. After the hunting had stopped, the population had exploded. The deer had eaten the mountain almost bare until erosion had become a serious problem in some places. That following winter, three starving does had wandered into the old man’s yard, trying to eat the bark off of h is pecan trees, and he had wished the “animal rights” fanatics could have been there then. It was against the law, but old man knew a higher law, and he took an axe into the yard and killed the starving beasts. They did not have the strength to run.

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Who caused the global economic crisis? (Hint: it wasn’t George W. Bush)

I ran across a great article today that was sent to me in the Pajamas Media daily digest. (Source: Roger’s Rules)

I sometimes wonder if The New York Times is secretly in league with the country’s dentists. All the teeth grinding our former paper of record occasions must be good for those in the business of capping and crowning teeth. Consider, to take only the most recent example that comes to hand, the long piece in yesterday’s business section about who or what caused the current economic crisis.

I’ll tell you in a moment who really caused it, but let’s play a game. Your mission, should you choose to accept it, is to guess whom the Times would nominate as the prime mover and scapegoat-in-chief in the global financial dégringolade we’ve been living through. Ready? You have 10 seconds to come up with the answer. . . .

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The Final Battle Against REAL ID Has Begun

The national ID battle, brewing for years, is now underway in earnest.

On January 11, the Department of Homeland Security released its final rules on what states must do to implement REAL ID, the national identification law Congress passed in 2005.

Homeland Security has taken the gloves off. States have until May to accept the plan. Beginning May 11, 2008, says Homeland Security, residents of states that have not agreed to implement REAL ID will not be allowed to use their state drivers licenses to board airplanes or enter federal buildings. They can use a U.S. passport or possibly other documents in some circumstances, but they must expect to “suffer delays due to the requirement for enhanced security screening.” In other words, take your shoes off, pal, and get in that LONG LONG line over there.

States that agree to comply may be granted extensions of several years to fully implement REAL ID. But when REAL ID is in place, notes CNET NEWS, in addition to flying and entering federal buildings, “REAL ID could in theory be required for traveling on Amtrak, collecting federal welfare benefits, signing up for Social Security, applying for student loans, interacting with the U.S. Postal Service, entering national parks” as well as purchasing firearms.

In practice, it may be impossible even to get a job or open a bank account without REAL ID. REAL ID is widely expected to become the standard ID for the private sector.

And that’s just the start. Homeland Security is already floating additional uses for the cards, including “reducing unlawful employment, voter fraud, and underage drinking,” and monitoring the purchase of over-the-counter medicines. The REAL ID Act explicitly says that REAL IDs shall be required for “any other purposes that the Secretary [of Homeland Security] shall determine.” A more open-ended grant of power could not be written.

REAL ID requires all states to make major changes to their driver’s licenses, turning them into police-state national ID cards that will be loaded with sensitive personal information, all of which will be tied together in huge databases. These databases will make it easy to routinely track, monitor, and regulate the movements and activities of all citizens. The cards would also be computer-readable, allowing government and private-sector scanners to collect the personal information on the cards.

The stakes are incredibly high, says former U.S. Congressman and current Libertarian Party National Committee board member Bob Barr.

“The massive database that would be created by the REAL ID Act, containing all manner of private information on citizens, is potentially one of the most privacy-invasive laws in the history of our country,” Barr says. “Anything less than scrapping this offensive national identification card law is unacceptable.”

The ACLU points out that the REAL ID “will become tantamount to a license to leave your house,” since it will be required virtually everywhere you go. “The end result could be a situation where citizens’ movements inside their own country are monitored and recorded through these ‘internal passports.’”

And so the stage is now set for a massive battle right out of the movie “V For Vendetta”: Big Brother at its most evil and intrusive versus outraged citizens who cherish civil liberties and privacy rights.

A true grassroots rebellion against REAL ID is forming. So far, 17 states have passed laws or resolutions rejecting REAL ID: Arkansas, Colorado, Georgia, Hawaii, Idaho, Illinois, Maine, Missouri, Montana, Nebraska, Nevada, New Hampshire, North Dakota, Oklahoma, South Carolina, Tennessee and Washington.

Twenty-one other states have either introduced legislation or had legislation pass in one chamber opposing REAL ID.

But all those states are facing tremendous pressure from the federal government.

Like so much recent statist legislation, REAL ID was sneaked into law. It was slipped into a May 2005 emergency-spending bill to fund the wars in Afghanistan and Iraq and provide tsunami relief. Such bills are almost impossible to defeat. It passed the House 368-58 and the Senate unanimously. There was not a single debate on the Act in the Senate, and insufficient discussion in the House. President Bush, who, his spokespersons once said, “does not support a national ID card,” strongly backed it and quickly signed it into law.

There have been attempts to kill the REAL ID beast in Congress. Legislation has been introduced in both the House and Senate to repeal the act, but thus far they have not progressed.

As this battle begins in earnest, state by state, no one should be fooled into thinking REAL ID has anything to do with fighting terrorism. The federal government has pushed for a national ID card for years, well before the 9/11 terrorist attacks. Previous justifications have included health care, the War on Drugs, protecting children, and controlling immigration. Any excuse, it seems, will do. This is all about massive, Orwellian control of Americans by a federal government run amok.

As Ron Paul said when the bill was introduced in 2005: “National ID cards will be used to track the law-abiding masses, not criminals.”

REAL ID is a Real Bad Idea: a giant move towards a 1984-ish police state where the government monitors and controls everything you say and do.

It can still be stopped. But it’s now or never.

(Sources: EPIC: http://epic.org/press/011108.html
ACLU: http://www.realnightmare.org/
Libertarian Party: http://www.lp.org/media/article_557.shtml
http://www.latimes.com/news/opinion/la-oew-healey22jan22,0,5551102.story )
Homeland Security on REAL ID:
http://www.dhs.gov/xprevprot/programs/gc_1172767635686.shtm

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